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  • Covid-19

    This new coronavirus is nasty. With the first confirmed case of community spread coronavirus in the US, I think it’s only a matter of time before this becomes a pandemic. It seems to spread like the flu only 20 times more deadly (2% fatality rate vs 0.1% for flu). I work at a Hospital so it’s definitely on my radar. Praying for all those affected and hoping it *somehow* doesn’t get out of hand.

  • #2
    Didn’t someone create a vaccine for this in 3 hours?


    Not convinced. Sounds a bit fear mongery to me
    Aric


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    • #3
      Apparently it takes something like 18 months to bring it to market after it's been engineered because of all the testing. 12 months if you're pushing hard. At least that's my understanding.

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      • #4
        The impact from the virus itself is unknowable at this stage; it's simply too new. The impacts that government efforts to curb its spread will have on global supply chains and global demand will be severe. You know when Japan closes schools for over a month the impacts to global GDP will not be superficial.

        Ray Dalio a while back posited a scenario where we could have a supply disruption that causes goods inflation. That kind of inflation cannot be combated with Fed policy. So we could have a particularly nasty environment where inflation picks up in spite of collapsing demand and central bank action does nothing to help (not that they have many bullets left anyway).

        Anywhoo. Good luck!!
        Last edited by JP-OH; 02-27-2020, 06:37 PM.
        50.241899, -115.857747

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        • #5
          Originally posted by dvsone79 View Post
          This new coronavirus is nasty. With the first confirmed case of community spread coronavirus in the US, I think it’s only a matter of time before this becomes a pandemic. It seems to spread like the flu only 20 times more deadly (2% fatality rate vs 0.1% for flu). I work at a Hospital so it’s definitely on my radar. Praying for all those affected and hoping it *somehow* doesn’t get out of hand.
          From the sound of things it mostly likely already has gotten out of hand. Detecting it has proven tricky until acute symptoms show and that can take a while. It also seems quite virulent. So the known number of cases could really be underestimating the true infection rate.

          Whether or not it ends up being a tragic health crisis will be something we can only judge later but as I said above it is at the very least gonna be a fn huge problem for a while as governments and organizations figure out how to react and we work through the impacts of these very disruptive mitigation efforts.

          The fn Saudis canceled pilgrimages to the kingdoms ffs!
          50.241899, -115.857747

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          • #6
            Originally posted by JP-OH View Post
            The impact from the virus itself is unknowable at this stage; it's simply too new. The impacts that government efforts to curb its spread will have on global supply chains and global demand will be severe. You know when Japan closes schools for over a month the impacts to global GDP will not be superficial.

            Ray Dalio a while back posited a scenario where we could have a supply disruption that causes goods inflation. That kind of inflation cannot be combated with Fed policy. So we could have a particularly nasty environment where inflation picks up in spite of collapsing demand and central bank action does nothing to help (not that they have many bullets left anyway).

            Anywhoo. Good luck!!
            Therein lies the real dilemma. Should govts treat it like the flu and let it run it’s course? By doing so, accepting the consequences (deaths)? Or should they try to quarantine it (us) and accept the collapsing economic infrastructure?

            Italy is already going through an epidemic. They’re probably 2 weeks ahead of us. It will be interesting to see what happens there.

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            • #7
              Its said that President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani has had direct contact with Masoumeh Ebtekar, one of Iran's vice presidents, who has tested positive for coronavirus. Wonder who Rouhani successor is?
              This Chinese Originated Virus is going to impact several levels world wide.

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              • #8
                Bat Flu baby!
                Aric


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                • #9
                  Sars and mers were worse...

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by snork View Post
                    Its said that President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani has had direct contact with Masoumeh Ebtekar, one of Iran's vice presidents, who has tested positive for coronavirus. Wonder who Rouhani successor is?
                    This Chinese Originated Virus is going to impact several levels world wide.
                    98% chance nothing changes in that leadership scenario. Or 96% if you go by Italy’s fatality rates from this virus.🦠

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by mikeg205 View Post
                      Sars and mers were worse...

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                      Measured by fatality rate? Way worse. But overall impact? Remains to be seen. Flu has killed FAR more people than SARS/MERS, precisely because it is NOT as fatal. The more lethal the virus, the less it spreads, and vice versa. This one may have just the right mix to make a heavier overall impact.

                      One of the many challenges is that most who get COVID-19 are unaware of it, meaning they have no symptoms. So, while they’re going to be fine, they are still carriers and can transmit the disease to others. And since they are not even aware they have it, they won’t take measures to prevent spreading it.

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                      • #12
                        https://youtu.be/GU0d8kpybVg

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                        • #13
                          The sky is not fall chicken little. Not the least bit concerned

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                          • #14
                            I have been following this from the start and it is going to become a Pandemic and will be an issue it all countries. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is still a moving target based on not having total number of people with mild case that do not report. The biggest issue is that it will affect so many people at once the hospitals etc will not be able to care for the ones that need it as they will need it all at once. Most severe cases need oxygen and there will not be enough to go around.

                            This is an airborne virus so much worse that just droplets that only come off someone fall to the ground. It can live on surfaces for a long time and as other has said you may not know you have it and are spreading as you are asymptomatic.

                            This is not a joke even though the media does sensationalize it. There is a very good chance this will be with us (the world) for many years. Until they have a vaccine we have no protection from it, most people (say 80%) will have a mild illness but due to the number that will get the virus the total of deaths could be a very big number.

                            The key will be working together as communities when it comes to your area, people self isolating to stop the spread and supporting each other.

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                            • #15
                              I’ve built up a tolerance to every virus known to man. I lick every machine, mat, and free weight that I use at the gym…at least twice a week.
                              “You realize your odds of winning the lottery are the same as being mauled by a polar bear and a regular bear in the same day”….E-Trade Baby.

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