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  #31  
Old 05-14-2021, 01:34 PM
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ValveCoverGasket ValveCoverGasket is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by j.mo View Post
I don’t think the foreclosures will be as rampant as many think.
Rental evictions may be another story.
agreed


things on the home owner front do seem to be steadily improving, as youd expect.


and for more context -

https://www.blackknightinc.com/blog-...ue-to-decline/

Quote:
We saw another week of good news in terms of forbearance volumes, which fell by 61,000 (-2.7%), continuing the strong trend of early-in-the-month improvements. Declines were seen across the board this week, with GSE forbearance volumes falling by 13K (-1.9%), FHA/VA plan volumes improving by 19K (-2.1%) and PLS/portfolio forbearances decreasing by 29K (-4.6%). Total plan starts are down 13% month-over-month, and continue to slowly decline.

...

As of May 11, 2.16 million (4.1% of) homeowners remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, including 2.5% of GSE loans, 7.3% of FHA/VA loans, and 4.6% of portfolio/PLS loans.

Last edited by ValveCoverGasket; 05-14-2021 at 02:30 PM.
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  #32  
Old 05-14-2021, 01:58 PM
Huckelfin Huckelfin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by j.mo View Post
Many of those people just tacked on those payments to the back end of their loan.
I don’t think the foreclosures will be as rampant as many think.
Rental evictions may be another story.


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I think there is going to be a serious 'correction' happening in the minds of renters that decided not to pay their rent because they heard there are no ramifications, a couple of people whom I do personally know took this route. I understand some impacted literally could not pay their rent because of job loss of course. I feel bad for those. Good luck renting from anyone ever again other than Class C or worse housing with evictions of your record nowadays. It is SO simple to check all this now.

Good luck to all of us dealing with the inflation, government handouts, trillions on stimmys etc. We're going to be paying for it soon enough.
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  #33  
Old 05-14-2021, 11:02 PM
H2ORidr H2ORidr is offline
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Originally Posted by peterjbrown71 View Post
Weren't things going along fine before Covid and Joey-B? Ah, the good old glory days of 2019.

Now if it would only rain....
Nope 2019 was the start of a mess that was building since 2017-2018. Because where I am employed and the huge diversity of products and the fact that we sell into everything from heavy industrial (ship building, CAT, Deere, Kumatsu, etc) all the way up to consumer products, and over 65% of our sales are OUS we are the canary in the coal mine. We see trends first both on the down side and also the upside before most people do. August of 2019 I went cash in my 401K because it was apparent to me in our industrial sales areas that things were going South. They had slowed a lot in 2018 and it was starting to creep up in 2019. CAT, Deere and other heavy industrial businesses were not buying much of the stuff from my division so I was literally seeing the testing of products at our plants slow. Slow testing = slowing sales, we make less when our distribution centers start getting more boxes sitting on the shelves. Many of these really big customers buy tens of millions of $ of the stuff I work on (testing) per month so if they slow down it is easy to spot. I saw the trend and I did not want to suffer the paper losses like I did in 2008-9. I have taken classes where the instructors taught us how to spot and hopefully profit from the ups as well as the downs. So I literally put my money on the sidelines because of what I saw about to happen and my training. Soon a set of layoffs was announced (Sept? 2019) affecting about 500+ people if I remember correctly. My friend's wife was one of those laid off. They did another bigger layoff last year, 2020.

By November 2019 things were really beginning to suck and the uppers at the company were putting programs and capital expenditures on hold left and right. I had a $2MM project put on hold and my other $1MM one was on life support. Then boom first week in January everything came to a complete and utter grinding halt except for money being thrown at new respirator production lines. First meeting in January at one of our outside machine building companies they told me that someone way up the food chain put a hold on everything but they were allowed to work on the new production lines for respirators. They were throwing money at that to the tune of I think over $240MM and 7 new production lines.

Then as we all knew by end of January the pandemic was really starting to roll and we were seeing it hit our OUS subsidiaries really hard. Every product we sold related to infection prevention was sold out overnight and in massive backorder. Then the pandemic came to the US and the rest is history. By May I started to get back into the markets with my 401K with 25% at end of May, another 25% in July and the remainder on August 1st 2020.

We are now fearing inflation as some of our raw material costs are going up. Sales in some areas are really, really rocking. My profit sharing for this year should be awesome if it can keep going.

And man do we need rain. I put my new dock in 3 weekends ago and already it is a full foot higher out of the water than I want it to be. I am assembling my new boat lift and I am worried I will not have enough water for it at the end of my new dock. First world problems.
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  #34  
Old 05-15-2021, 08:53 AM
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gwozhog gwozhog is offline
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Originally Posted by MC25 View Post
Unrelated. You thing Sanger is having a tough time building boats cause of the wood shortage?



Sorry. Iíll see myself out. Lol
bahahaaaa!!!!!!!
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